It’s Not Unusual

An article in today’s Stuff newspaper reports a mass casualty situation at hospital EDs and then sets out to tell us ‘it is not unusual’ (???). Here are the main points:

St John Ambulance Service has recorded its busiest winter ever, but according to an expert from PHF Science it is not unusual (???). PHF Science is the New Zealand Institute for Public Health and Forensic Science, a Government-owned research organisation dedicated to the health, wellbeing and safety of our communities. Presumably correct use of the English language is not an employment requirement for their experts.

Winter illness usually peaks in June or July. This year it began in May and it is still rising in September. So far it hasn’t peaked, as the winter creeps into Spring it is still rising. So PHF scientist Sarah Jeffries explained to Stuff this is best described as just ‘a delay in seasonal respiratory illness’ (up 33% on the 12 month average) rather than anything unusual.

The South Island is having a rate of illness similar to the height of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2022, so it is not unusual. Technically this may be correct as far as the 2022 numbers go, but the underlying presumption that 2022 was usual (???) is hardly rational. 

Jeffries explained “This late peak may well be adding pressure to frontline health services.” An understatement that doesn’t quite fit with the description offered by senior doctors who likened Christchurch Hospital’s emergency department to a “mass casualty situation” and said they were considering putting up a tent in the parking lot to triage patients. 

To give a scale to what is going on in the wider community outside of hospital, on Christchurch Haeata Community Campus’ worst day, 56% of students were off sick. Throughout Northland schools, staff absenteeism due to sickness has reached 33%, forcing schools to roster senior students to teach classes, but according to Jeffries, illness rates are not ‘unprecedented’, merely ‘striking’ (like our doctors).

Infamous COVID-19 modeller Michael Planck chimed in to say that it hasn’t been a particularly unusual winter. To their credit Stuff chimed in with a note of reality saying “many Kiwis are being struck down repeatedly by winter lurgies this year, and they say the bugs are lasting longer too.” If you have had the so-called lurgies, as we have had in our household, you will probably agree wholeheartedly. Yesterday and last week we were met with near empty car parks at the supermarket on the day when they are normally at their busiest.

So what is happening? Our Hatchard Report article yesterday entitled “NZ First’s Intention to Reach a Gene Technology Bill Compromise Would Be a Grave Mistake” offered some insight into the possibility of Horizontal Gene Transfer allowing some of the nastier engineered genetic sequences of COVID-19 to migrate to other illnesses. It can also be that the immunity levels of the whole population have fallen due to the combined effect of COVID-19 and the mRNA Vaccines. 

It’s unlikely that those employed by the government will tell us such things, it would be too embarrassing and in any case their grasp of the nuances of the English language might be too primitive to express such thoughts accurately. In confidence, I am told the government is negotiating with Tom Jones to come over for a New Zealand Tour to sing “it’s not unusual” for us. It keeps it all simple and down to earth for us mortals snuffling and hacking our way into Spring. 

Joking aside, the Gene Technology Bill promises more winters of discontent.  More sickness and more problems in the health system are in prospect. Any attempt to tell us this is usual is a smokescreen to hide the reality. Biotech deregulation is the worst possible outcome for our families, whanau and our country.